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Maps of middle super output areas (MSOAs) in England showing excess deaths per 100,000 people aged 40 years and over. (A) Excess deaths per 100,000 males (left)/females (right) from 1 March to 31 May 2020 compared to the same period for the preceding five years. (B) Posterior probability that excess deaths > 0. Community characteristics of the MSOAs were: % population on income support; population density; % population non-White; % population living in overcrowded homes; air pollution (NO2 and PM2.5); care homes per 1,000 population. We map the posterior probability which measures the extent to which an estimate of excess/fewer deaths is likely to be a true increase/decrease. Where the entire posterior distribution of estimated excess deaths for an MSOA is greater than zero, there is a posterior probability of ~1 of a true increase, and conversely where the entire posterior distribution is less than zero there is a posterior probability of ~0 of a true increase. This posterior probability would be ~0.5 in an MSOA in which an increase is statistically indistinguishable from a decrease.

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