Tiny Nick’s Playing Picks: 1/24

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Castles

NFL – 2-Team 7-Point Teaser; Bucs +10, Bills +10:

I’m not going to get into the narrative that Tom Brady will march into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and come out with a win, but I’m getting on with it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know they’re only one game away from a Super Bowl, so they won’t go down without a fight. They also hammered the Green Bay Packers on the streets earlier this season. 10 points is a lot so I’m angry with the street dog.

The Buffalo Bills honestly didn’t look good in the playoffs. But Patrick Mahomes was dropped on his head last week, which most likely threw him off his pace for not having been able to practice much this week. I hate betting against Mahomes, but the Kansas City Chiefs were under ATS 0.500 this year and a 7 point tease is 10 points too high, so I’m rolling the bills +10 with the street dog here too.

I threw a second game on this game in the Degenerate so it should be a fun day of football.

NCAA Basketball – San Diego State / Air Force over 126 (-110):

These teams are in their doubles second leg, and the first leg ended with a total of 159 points, 34 points more than in the game. The odds of winning have essentially decided to run it back. I think we have some value here on running this matchup again as they discount some key metrics.

First, the Air Force in their conference games is 8: 1 above that particular total. While San Diego State is only 4-3 above that number, that was mainly a factor in some strong defense they faced. The Luftwaffe has anything but a strong defense and ranks 339th in defensive efficiency and 344th in the percentage of effective field goals of the opponent. The Aztecs have just enough offensive strike at 1,018 points per possession to take advantage of that poor defense, as they did in the first match. While I don’t expect another sum that high, this number is too low and easily achievable given the underlying metrics.

Degenerate

Bonus game; Bills / bosses over 54 (-110):

As long as there is no new news posted about Mahomes, I think the ending is a fun game in this one. Teams don’t like to play a lot in playoffs, and while these two teams went down in their first match, a playoff shootout is usually more fun.

I think today’s game ends between 31-27 so I’ll take control.

NCAA Basketball – Boston University @ Lafayette -5 (-110):

This is one place where I want to take advantage of the zig zag for a reduced price. As if these zigzag patterns weren’t crazy enough, I also try to account for bad teams that perform above average and then come back down to earth, which is what I see at Boston University.

The Terriers averaged 12.3 points better in the Double Heads first leg, and the differences in scores are pretty accurate if you look closely. This is not a good team, 257th in the effective field target percentage and 332nd in the opponent’s effective field target percentage, so they really had no business winning yesterday’s first leg.

When they’re zigzagging at their average rate, Lafayette easily covers that number, which ticked off a point from yesterday’s line, so I think it’s a good value.

Tiny Nick has had 115-64 ATS (+49.8 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he offers his locks and degenerate picks. Castles are the games he is sure of. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.