Betfair / YouTube
Paul Krishnamurty makes a living by consistently making lots of money on political betting.
On his website Politicalgambler.com he publishes his latest gambling tips for people who want to outsmart the bookmakers and make a profit in the political betting markets.
Krishnamurty has achieved great success on both sides of the Atlantic – betting on general elections and leadership competitions in the UK and presidential elections in the US.
He’s made well over £ 25,000 ($ 33,396) on just a handful of bets this year alone.
Business Insider caught up with him this week to discuss the pros and cons of political gambling, its methods, its achievements, and the tips he has to share with a view to upcoming political events.
“I’ve been a professional player for fifteen years,” Paul told BI.
“The political side is something I’ve taken a lot more seriously over the past 18 months. Politics is a huge passion of mine – I graduated from the field a long time ago.”
Krishnamurty, who is currently the chief analyst at the betting company Betfair, has been involved in some form of gambling since his youth.
“I’ve been gambling since I was 12. I was always the school bookmaker … I made chances for anyone who wanted them. But it wasn’t political, it was sport. Football, golf, horse racing,” he said .
“When I was 18, I worked for William Hill, then I was a betting shop manager, which was a pretty dumb job, but it gave me inside knowledge on the subject. I went to college in my twenties for further training then I decided to combine my political knowledge with an expert opinion on gaming and the math side.
I spent my student loan money on the 2001 general election and got everything in order.
“I spent my student loan money on the 2001 general election and got everything in order. I really supported Iain Duncan Smith well before the 33/1 campaign.” [subsequent] Tory leadership choice. I realized that there was a real nook for me here. “
The University of Hull graduate has achieved a number of impressive achievements. Not only did he assist Duncan Smith in winning the Tory leadership in 2001, but he rightly predicted that Michael Howard would take over the party in 2003 at 33/1. “It was really a case of free money,” he said.
His favorite win, however, was much younger.
“From a personal point of view, Corbyn was my favorite. He was so ridiculed by highly paid people everywhere. He was laughed at,” he told BI.
Make money with Corbyn’s victory
Krishnamurty made over £ 6,000 in profit supporting Corbyn around the clock long before the results of last year’s Labor leadership election were announced. T.This means that the chance that a seasoned socialist would win the lead at that time was only 4%. His win completely amazed most bookmakers.
Contrary to most pollsters, Krishnamurty correctly predicted that the British would vote to leave the EU on June 23, which resulted in another £ 6,000 prize pool.
“It was an absolute gold mine at night,” he said.
Matt Singh, a poll analyst who runs the Number Cruncher Politics blog, told BI last week that predicting the outcome of the EU referendum was one of the toughest challenges of his career. Krishnamurty, however, had no such difficulty.
To be honest, I am not voting-driven. I’m not saying they’re useless, but they follow a rigid scientific model that can’t always be applied to politics and elections.
“No, it wasn’t that difficult at all,” he explained.
“In all honesty, I’m not voting-oriented. I’m not saying they’re useless, but they follow a rigid scientific model that doesn’t always apply to politics and elections. My logic was that at least 80% of the people were decided on the first day, so the task was to deal with the remaining 20%. I just couldn’t see how Remain could get over 55% and went on to Leave from there. “
Krishnamurty said the EU referendum was an example of how the mainstream media and pollsters have a tendency to misinterpret public sentiment. His own methods include speaking to voters and “measuring the bottom line” rather than listening to what experts and commentators are saying.
“One thing that is greatly underestimated in politics is the conversation in the pub, the conversation in the office,” he said.
“The point about Brexit is that the anti-EU argument has been going on every day for years – in the press, on television, in the average workplace. Most people are not that interested in politics, but when someone says something about immigration or something like that, a person in the office with a big voice will say, “This is because of the EU.”
“In this country, the Remain side just hadn’t spoken. It’s just not a point that people have brought up until this year. That left very few enthusiastic voters on the Remain side and a huge turnout for Leave. Man really have to measure What’s going on at the base?
“It’s also about understanding the ideological trends in the world. P.o, to take the example of Corbyn. I didn’t support him last year because I thought he might be a good leader, but because he opposed three candidates, all of whom represented an outdated, tired ideology that people who could vote were no longer buying. “
Corbyn won almost 60% of the vote, despite starting the competition in 2015 as a clear underdog.
REUTERS / Stefan Wermuth
BI met with Krishnamurty in central London before flying to the US to start work on the US presidential election. He will visit the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia – places where the November election will be a great sign of the nation.
“I have been very supportive of Clinton from the start. I cannot see Trump as president and I do not buy into exaggerated election movements,” he said.
“But my big game is predicting electoral college contribution and hedging between markets. P.Tate bets offer limited winnings as the hot favorite usually wins. I have a feeling that Clinton will get over 330 votes for the electoral college. ” [A candidate needs 270 out of the 538 to win the presidency].
Krishnamurty has already placed bets on events that may have only been happening for a few years.
“I’m always looking for a corner – I’m already betting on the next Labor leader after the election winner.
“The person I really like is Clive Lewis … I’ll add a few more Corbynistas – Angela Raynor and Richard Burgon. I think one of them will inherit the party.”
However, he is not quite as forced to invest money early in the 2020 parliamentary elections. “Whenever it is, there will be a massive Tory majority. So I really don’t want to put any money into them until I at least have a better idea of when it is.”