2021 NFL Convention Championship Spherical – SI Playing Workforce’s finest bets

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NFL Best Bets: Conference Championship Round

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks, which are only reserved for MEMBERS at SI Fantasy PRO. Members will receive a notification immediately upon approval of their selection.

UPDATED 2020/2021 OFFICIAL DOCUMENTED VEGAS WHISPERS RECORD

2020 NFL: 70-52-1 | 2020 CFB: 32-21 | 2020 MLB: 79-60

NFL regular season: 68-47-1 (59%)

NFL PLAYOFFS: 2-5-0

2020 CFB TOTAL: 32-21 (61%)

2020 CFB BOWLS: 7-2-0 (78%)

2020 MLB: 79-60 +16.66 UNITS

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2020/2021 VEGAS WHISPERS RESPECTED MONEY GAMES: 70-39-3 (64%) – Reserved only for member discord group)

2020: 36-22-3 (62%)

2021: 34-17-0 (67%)

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Editor’s Note: All ODDS are selected through DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK and are subject to change.

Ben heisler (@bennyheis)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

While it would be easy to jump to the bottom for the likelihood of snow in the “Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field”, I support the number based on the actual talent in the field.

With Antonio Brown ruled out and Mike Evans nowhere near 100%, I’m not convinced Tom Brady and the Bucs can move the ball effectively in Green Bay’s defense. The Packers have not dropped more than 25 points since Nov. 29, in large part due to the fact that the primetime game against the Bears was over at halftime. As of December 13, no teams are allowed to score more than 18 points. While Tampa Bay averaged 34.8 points in the middle of a six-game winning streak, most of those points came against teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, and Detroit, which lagged the bottom in terms of defensive efficiency.

With cold weather, possibly snow and wind, and a defense ready to turn ears back and pressurize Brady, sauntering to Super Bowl LV isn’t a bad way for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

BEST BET: TB @ GB UNDER 52

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

For Frankie’s “Best Bet” check out his Vegas Whispers Sharp Bet Breakdown on Buccaneers vs. Packers.

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

The AFC competition we’ve all been waiting for is finally around the corner and I can safely say that the two best teams in the conference are playing in this game. The totals have increased from the opening number, and Buffalo is an “over team,” especially when playing on the street. A healthy Mahomes is going to make the bills keep up with what I think they will. I see a tight game that goes beyond the total in overtime.

BEST BET: BUF @ KC OVER 54.5

Michael fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

BEST BET: Bills +3

Roy Larking (@ StatsGuru6)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (13-5) are on the road for a third straight week after beating the Saints 30-20 last week in New Orleans. Tampa Bay was held on the offensive for a total of 316 yards, but the Bucs’ defense forced four turnovers. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (14-3) will play a second home game in a row after an impressive 32:18 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Rodgers threw two touchdown passes and added a 1 yard rushing score. The defense of Green Bay kept the Rams offensive to only 244 yards.

These teams met in Week 6 and the Buccaneers blew up the Packers 38-10 in Tampa. Rodgers was sacked four times, intercepted twice and it was the only game that season that he had no touchdown passes. Expect Rodgers to post much better numbers in this game. The defense at Green Bay has improved since the first meeting and they have only allowed 16 points per game in the last four competitions. I also like how Green Bay got a total of 188 rushing yards last week. Packers advance to Super Bowl 55.

Green Bay is a -3.5 favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Packers.

BEST BET: Packer -3.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packer -3.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packer -3.5

Casey Olson (@ Y2CASEY)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Packer -3.5

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) | TOTAL: 52

That line feels like an overreaction to the October team meeting when Aaron Rodgers threw two of his five interceptions of the season in the first 20 minutes (one returned for a TD, the other set up the Bucs offensive on the two-yard -Place before line).

In the Rodgers era, the Packers are 12-6-1 against the post-season spread, 6-2 ATS as postseason favorites of a field goal or more, and 4-2 ATS as postseason favorites at Lambeau.

BEST BET: Packer -3.5

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | TOTAL: 54.5

The Chiefs have done a miserable job on spreads this season, but they are the best team in football and I happily take them when I only have three points to score. I know that records in close matches are often an indicator that a team’s success is unsustainable, but in this case I just trust that team will find a way to win close matches. We saw them advance early and persevere. We saw them fall back and come back. In any case, they almost always end up on top.

I know a three point spread is real, but I expect them to win the game and I can’t worry about any unusual results leading to a win out of cover.

The Bills are a worthy opponent, of course, but on their two playoff wins they didn’t look like the almighty force they had on the track in the regular season. I think rain and cold (maybe not Lambeau cold, but I wouldn’t want to play in the rain at night in my 30s) could make this a sloppier, uglier game than the shootout we’d imagine on a Sunday in October, and I trust Kansas City’s coaching and staff to figure out what it takes to get the job done.

The AFC’s best team will represent the conference at the Super Bowl, and – which is good news for Chiefs bettors this season – they don’t need a blowout for this bet to make money.

BEST BET: Chiefs -3

UPDATE * – Line has now changed to Chiefs -3.5

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LAST WEEK POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 4-5-0

COLLECTIVE POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 6-10-2